Mortgage loans: Perspectives in Turkey

The system of housing finance and lending sector is an important element of the real estate market. Its further development and prospects for the next ten years should be considered in forecasting demand and supply in the market.

According to the portal TAPU.RU, at the end of 2011 the size of housing loans throughout Turkey amounted to TL 74.59 billion. The number of such loans amounted to 1.36 million. The average size of a loan of TL 54,845 . The share of housing loans in the total number of loans was 10.92 percent, and the national income - 5.76 percent.

Predicting the growth areas of housing loans depends on the scenarios of economic growth in Turkey and in interest rates on loans. Subject to five per cent economic growth, the share of housing loans will be 12 % with a consequent increase in the amount of 0.5 % per year.

Subject to the six percent economic growth, the share of housing loans will increase to 15% and will grow by 0.75 %. Provided vosmiprotsentnogo economic growth, the share of housing loans will be 21 % and will increase by 1.25 % annually .

In 2023, as expected , the size of home loans will reach $ 166.8 billion if the rate of 5 % , $ ​​233.3 million , subject to increase 6% to $ 420 billion if the growth in 8.3 %.

A rough estimate of housing loans for the next ten years are as follows ( in billions of dollars) :

The size of the average home loan in 2011 was $ 30,000 . Taking into account the increase in real estate prices that is likely to happen in 2023 , we can assume that the average home loan increased to $ 50,000 . The total number of housing loans in 2023 , according to experts , will rise to 3.34 million units , 4.67 million units and 8.4 million units , depending on how much growth can reach the Turkish economy - 5%, 6% or 8.3 %.